Robotic Precursor Missions

In a previous blog entry (Robotic Precusor Missions), I described a proposed new NASA initiative in the manned exploration program to develop key technologies and scout future locations for manned exploration.  At that time, the program was pretty sketchy.  NASA just held a conference on this program that begins to fill in the blanks.  I want to emphasize, however, that the presentations are full of disclaimers stating that these are early plans likely to change.  Congress also has to go along with the Administration's proposal and fund the programs, which is anything but certain.

(All illustrations except the budget projection are from FY 2011 Exploration Precursor Robotic Missions (xPRM) Point of Departure Plans)

If these programs are funded, they would be great news for planetary exploration.  The entire program has many parts, and the full picture is too complex to describe here. Most of the programs are specific to manned spaceflight capabilities to reach near Earth asteroids and Mars.  Two programs, however, directly bear on unmanned planetary exploration.  This post will focus on the Robotic missions, and a subsequent post will focus on the technology development missions.

The role of the Robotic missions is to scout ahead of human exploration.  To provide an analogy, the Apollo missions to the moon had the robotic Ranger, Surveyor, and Lunar Orbiters that scouted the terrain and provided essential information prior to human flights as well as fundamental scientific exploration.  The in-progress Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and the recently completed LCROSS missions are modern versions of the same idea.  NASA is proposing a series of missions in the $500-800M range that would scout near Earth asteroids, the moon, and Mars.  This budget figure, which would include the launch vehicle, puts these missions in the class of Discovery missions.  (The fully burdened cost of each Discovery mission appears to be about $800M, with ~$450M going to the PI for spacecraft and instruments.)

Projected spending on precursor missions based on FY11 NASA budget proposal projections

The mission profiles and instruments would be selected to answer key questions relevant to human missions.  Is the surface safe to land on?  Are there hazardous substances?  Can we find resources to use?  The missions that can answer questions like these can also provide good science and good vicarious armchair exploration.

The robotic precursor program appears to be quite ambitious.  In addition to the major missions, several Scout missions costing less than $200M would also be flown.  The presentation is vague about what these missions might do.  The program would also fund individual instruments on scientific missions to make instruments useful for planning manned missions.

Example of how an investigation can approached from both the perspective of a precursor and a scientific mission.  In many cases, the data collected for one will inform the other.

Current roadmap of precursor missions.  xPRP missions would be $500-800M, MOOs are missions of opportunities that would usually pay to place an additional instrument on a science mission, and xScouts are small missions $100-200M in cost.

The slide above provides the current strawman list of missions under consideration.  Here, I’ll expand on a couple of the missions.  The 2014 near Earth asteroid mission would characterize one of these objects in terms of hazards, proximity operation conditions, and resources.  The instrument list, though, reads like that of a scientific mission: sub-meter pixel imaging, LiDAR for topography, instrument(s) for compositional mapping, and radar for subsurface structural mapping.  The mission would end with the spacecraft landing on the asteroid.

The 2016 Mars orbiter would leave for the Red Planet the same year as the Mars Trace Gas science orbiter.  While the MTG orbiter would focus on atmospheric composition and dynamics, the precursor mission would focus on radiation hazards, near surface ice detection, potential landing site imaging, and radar imaging to peer beneath the surface dust.  While these measurements would be essential to planning an eventual manned mission, all (except perhaps the in orbit radiation instrument) would address questions that have high scientific value for understanding Mars.

Additional large xPRP missions in the strawman roadmap include:

• 2015: Teleoperated Lunar Lander in a sunlit polar region and enhanced hydrogen signature to explore resources, hazards, and mission operations.  Would include a Sojourner class rover.  (Noted as being aggressive for budget allocation.)
• 2018: Mars lander with a MER class rover with instruments to investigate human safety issues.
• 2019: Near Earth Asteroid mission that is still to be defined but has a goal of including 3-6 spacecraft to explore multiple targets

Editorial Thoughts: If these missions fly, they would constitute a major program of scientific exploration.  While no total budget is given, a quick back of the envelope calculation suggests that the program might be as large as $5B, or a little less than half the budget of the scientific planetary program. I suspect that the program is too ambitious for the projected budget.  The lunar and Mars landers, for example, have the feeling of a New Frontiers class mission (>$1B with all costs included) rather than a Discovery class mission.  I personally am most intrigued by the possibility of sending multiple smaller spacecraft to explore multiple near Earth asteroids and by the Mars orbiter.  I suspect that others would find the two landers more intriguing.

The cynic in me, though, is skeptical.  This program depends on the Obama administration’s proposed changes to the manned space program being accepted and funded by Congress.  Right now, Congress seems to be somewhere between doubtful and hostile to the proposed program changes.  It is possible that the Administration and Congress will compromise and keep elements of the old and new manned programs.  New programs such as these precursor missions that don’t have established political constituencies and don’t keep existing workforces employed may not fare well.

I hope that I am wrong, but I will not get excited until I see these programs progress to hardware being built.

Robotic Precursor Missions

The last blog entry discussed the proposed NASA budget for FY11 and projected budgets through FY15.  The overall NASA budget also calls for an extensive series of robotic "precursor" missions to the moon, Mars, and near Earth asteroids.  The goals of these missions will not be scientific but rather will be to fly ahead of presumed eventual human missions to demonstrate technologies, assess potential resources to use, and determine if hazards are present. 

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) and Lunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite (LCROSS) missions were flown under a similar program aimed at returning humans to the moon.  What's new in this budget proposal is that the list of targets has been expanded to include Mars and the near Earth asteroids.

While these aren't science missions, it's likely that the missions will make measurements that are scientifically useful.  LRO will be turned over to the planetary science program in the next few months to become a scientific mission once the primary mission of mapping the moon for future manned missions is completed.  Looking ahead, exploring the craters at the lunar poles for ice also would provide valuable scientific data.  It's hard to imagine that a mission could explore potential resources at a near Earth asteroid without making composition measurements that also would be scientifically valuable.  And all these missions probably would carry cameras, so armchair explorers will get to see new sites in the solar system.

The proposed budgets for these missions is projected to grow considerably to be almost twice as large as the largest planetary science budget item (Mars) and be equal to more than half the entire planetary budget.

Not much information is available at this time on these precursor missions.  I've copied the following paragraphs from the Exploration Systems NASA budget document (http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/428356main_Exploration.pdf).

An additional key contributor to a robust exploration program will be the acquisition of critical knowledge gained through the pursuit of exploration precursor robotic missions. These missions will provide vital information—from soil chemistry to radiation dose levels to landing site scouting to resource identification—necessary to plan, design and operate future human missions. These missions will help us determine the next step for crews beyond low Earth orbit, answering such questions as: Is a particular asteroid a viable target for crewed mission? Do the resources at the lunar poles have the potential for crew utilization? Is Mars dust toxic?

NASA will send precursor robotic missions to candidate destinations for human exploration such as the Moon, Mars and its moons, Lagrange points, and nearby asteroids to scout targets for future human activities, and identify hazards and resources that will determine the future course of expanding human civilization into space. Projects will make critical observations, test approaches and operations concepts, and identify specific target destinations directly beneficial to future human space activities. Instruments, destinations and missions will be prioritized based on their utility to future human activities... While there may be some synergies between this program and the Planetary Science theme within SMD, care will be taken to avoid unnecessary duplication. Dedicated precursor exploration missions are planned to remain below $800 million in total cost, and most will be considerably less expensive.

NASA will begin funding at least two dedicated precursor missions in 2011. One will likely be a lunar mission to demonstrate tele-operation capability from Earth and potentially from the International Space Station, including the ability to transmit near-live video to Earth. This will also result in investigations for validating the availability of resources for extraction. NASA will provide opportunities to participate in the payloads and observation teams, and potentially portions of the spacecraft, through open competition.

NASA will also select at least one additional robotic precursor mission to initiate in 2011, and identify potential future missions to begin in 2012 and/or 2013. Potential missions may include:

• Landing on asteroids or the moons of Mars rather than orbiting these bodies would allow us to better determine whether they pose safety hazards to astronauts or contain materials useful for future explorers. Landing can also test technologies that could help future human missions.
• Landing a facility to test processing technologies for transforming lunar or asteroid materials for fuel could eventually allow astronauts to partially “live off the land.”
• In Situ Resource Utilization: NASA will fund research in a variety of ISRU activities aimed at using lunar, asteroidal, and Martian materials to produce oxygen and extract water from ice reservoirs.
• Autonomous Precision Landing: In FY 2011, NASA will initiate development of a flight experiment to demonstrate an autonomous precision landing and hazard avoidance system. NASA will pursue use of this system on the first robotic precursor exploration mission to the Moon or other planetary body.
• Advanced In-Space Propulsion: NASA will work with partners in industry as appropriate, to conduct foundational research to study the requirements and potential designs for advanced high-energy in-space propulsion systems to support deep-space human exploration, and to reduce travel time between Earth’s orbit and future destinations for human activity. These technologies could include nuclear thermal propulsion, solar and nuclear electric propulsion, plasma propulsion, and other high-energy and/or high-efficiency propulsion concepts.
• Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) Technology: NASA will develop and test concepts for large aeroshells and advanced thermal protection system materials to enable aero-capture and atmospheric entry of heavy payloads. These technologies will enable the demonstration of EDL capabilities on future robotic precursor and flagship missions.